There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.
Donald Rumsfeld
There are few senior officials I’ve come in contact with that enjoyed holding a press conference more than former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. And, there are none who approach the task with as many amusing yet thought provoking phrases.
While I’ve been absorbing the news around Iran and Israel, I’ve thought of Rumsfeld’s “knowns.” I have also remembered my own conclusion after eight years at the White House: in the aftermath of any major event, what you are first told is always wrong.
We these thoughts as filters, here’s where I’m at this Wednesday afternoon….
The Known Knowns
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu clearly decided last year that the time had come to create an opportunity to take out Iran’s nuclear weapon ambitions.
Israel had taken out Iranian proxies which reduced the risk of retaliation and needed to break their ability to defend against air assaults.
Israel could do significant damage by hitting strategic targets, both locations and people, but they lack the ability to destroy underground nuclear facilities something requiring President Trump’s engagement.
As for Iran, the leaders have had for decades serious nuclear weapon ambitions.
President Trump holds huge ambitions to be seen as making peace somewhere in the world and would likely come to the aid of Israel to be associated with an historic ceasefire and peace initiative if Israel could get close. Knowing this, Prime Minister Netanyahu successfully pulled a United States president into a battle where clear victory remains illusive.
With regard to the bombing operation, it is clear that brave members of the U.S. military flew a flawless mission that went undiscovered over Iran until the bombs were dropped with precision. The aircraft and crews returned from this dangerous mission without injury after striking their targets.
Lastly, it is clear that President Trump has a reality in his mind about the results of this mission and any other view is unacceptable to him and his loyalists.
The Known Unknowns
Trying to assign a percentage of damage done to Iran’s nuclear weapon ambitions is premature before there is an opportunity to gather more intelligence.
We must assume Iran retains nuclear weapon ambitions, but the timing of having a serious capability is unclear.
History suggests that ceasefires do not hold in this region, and there can be no certainty that one between Iran and Israel is the exception.
Diplomatic agreements are crucial, but are they possible?
The Unknown Unknowns
Are Iranians sufficiently frustrated with their leaders bring about change; and, if so, what would the change look like?
Who survived the Israeli and U.S. assaults inside Iran and must they be taken out to curtail Iranian nuclear ambitions?
Who and where are Iranian proxies and sleeper cells, and will they be activated?
Finally, what reality will Donald Trump embrace going forward.
I can’t help believing that this is just a chapter in a long saga that shapes our relationship to countries and key players in a troubled and violent region.
The post is right on? I want to know the known facts, the reality!
Thank you Don - for clearing that up!