A Defining Moment
It's a time for choosing among very consequential options
True defining moments do not come along all that often for a President. President Trump has one squarely in front of him now around joining the battle against Iran.
One of the most important element of a defining moment is what it tells us about a leader’s thinking and approach to making difficult decisions. Donald Trump has spent a lifetime doing deals and making decisions based upon what serves him best. But, difficult national security and foreign policy decisions are about what is best for others.
Years ago, during a moment in the White House Cabinet Room, President Reagan confronted a tough decision and sought the views of his cabinet and several top advisors. When his political advisor spoke about the political consequences of taking one path versus another, President Reagan said to his aide, “…while I appreciate what you’ve said, we are going to make the right decision and we’ll let the politics take care of this later.”
If there is one thing President Trump has said recently about which I am in full agreement, we have no idea what he will do.
There is wisdom in giving the U.S. military the chance to get ready for a final decision without giving a green light for military action. It seems that has occurred.
There is wisdom in taking time to seek an agreement with other nations supporting the effort and standing with the United States, but this requires trusted relationships among nations with aligned interests. President George H.W. Bush spent a lifetime building relationships that he could turn to when seeking to build alliances.
Additionally, a President usually has among his cabinet and advisors individuals with wisdom that comes from experience. These people sort through what each possible course of action means for the future based upon their time in a region and knowledge of the key players. You can call it harsh, but one experienced commentator this week worried aloud about the quality of advice the President’s advisors were capable of giving, saying, “…when you hire clowns what you get is a circus.”
The reality for President Trump is that there are serious consequences around every option he has available. Even taking no action, as some are urging, sends a signal around the world that after demanding a deal, drawing lines in the proverbial sand and waiting for some form of agreement from the 86 year old leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, the President is capable of just walking away. Clearly, not good news in Ukraine or Taiwan or throughout Europe.
Action brings danger as well. Iran has a population of over 92 million people. According to a recent Associated Press report, Iran’s regular forces command the bulk of the troops — around 600,000 men — with standard equipment, while the Revolutionary Guard has about 200,000. With 800,000 soldiers and their proxies spread throughout the world, the threats to all who elect to engage Iran remains considerable.
It’s clear that there are options on the table, but it is also clear Israel is not going to give President Trump weeks to decide. The defining moment seems near.